Making predictions is an inherently high-risk activity. Predictions for 2021 are here. I would grade them as B-. The predictions for 2022 are here and a B+ grade on these feels more appropriate because Gladwell’s Tipping Point model was the right framework.
It’s easy to be right about the obvious stuff in our lives. For example, we know supply chain chaos is going to continue in 2023 because it has not changed in 2022. In a poll I did on LinkedIn, people predicted supply chain issues would continue to and past 2023 and that was in early 2022 (65%). Nothing has really changed. Inflation too has been an easily predicted outcome because of a combination of overheated demand in a range of markets, global situations (including a war in Ukraine) and a continuation of an extremely hot labor market that is breaking traditional Philips curve economic theory.
Another obvious one. The world is getting hotter. That does not always mean less rain, but it does mean larger weather pattern shifts like monsoon like downpours and shifting seasonal norms. It might not feel like a substantial change, but the planet is overly sensitive to these shifts and will behave differently because of it, (monsoons, tornadoes, long drought conditions, etc.). There are consequences of this we have yet to measures, but we know they are coming.
Blockchain is here to stay, crypto is a short run implosion of greed, like the Tulip Mania of the mid 16th Century. We don’t trade Tulip bulbs that furiously now, but the mania truly sparked the futures market and effectively the stock market movement that drove capitalism. Crypto and its easiness is a signal for how market dynamics are going shift to include fractions of data (not just NFTs) as markets in themselves. Ten years from now the idea of Blockchain will be in everything we do. We just had our Tulip Mania melt down. However, it is not the end of crypto, just a different future of the core technology behind it.
Let’s talk Covid once and once only because we should. Covid happened, and we can either learn a lot from it, or not. We can and should no longer blame the coming problems or conflicts of 2023 on it specifically. Yes, we can learn from it, Covid was the brute force punch in the (place your chosen body part here). I personally feel there is enough burnout from analyzing it; so, I will do my best to leave the Covid crunch out of many of the prediction outliers listed in 2023, you’ll thank me in 2024.
MY 23 PREDICTIONS FOR 2023
The theme for 2023 predictions is more about the underlying changes we are seeing in society, government, technology, business models, geopolitics, and the planet and less about some of the superficial pieces that might be more noise than true signals.
For every prediction in this list there were another ten, in fact maybe 442 that I could have made. That’s bonus prediction 24 if you want to cut to the chase. So here we go:
PREDICTION #01
Friction free globalization sees an overhaul of its playbook in 4th down territory.
Sorry for the awful NFL analogy, but nobody in their right minds thinks globalized, free market trade is healthy right now. In 2023 there is a clear understanding that you need to navigate the new rules for trade, and it will be based on the interactions of five variables. Plotting these waypoints is going to get very tough.
[1] Does a company or region have a very differentiated product or capability that is tough to replicate (for example TSMC). [2] Are there regional or market standards that mean that companies will need to invest more than before to get into them, (European energy markets). [3] Are regions insisting on local production only (typically Brazil and China and increasingly India)? [4] Are geopolitics changing the risk profile for being able to work with something and somewhere, for example the failed Nvidia and ARM acquisition in the UK (by a US company).Even the most traditional market interactions are going to be threatened in 2023 as we discover the new shapes and rules of global capitalism. In 2023 the idea of friction free globalization being in concussion protocol becomes real. Companies need to invest very differently (sensitive, new investment parameters) to thrive in this new world as it is not the same game as before. Here Covid has made us more focused on an inward perspective (house, community, country) and less focused on the global landscape.
PREDICTION #02
Elon Musk gets social media healthy by being the symbol for its potential craziness.
He is about as out there as you might expect. It’s part of his personality and the engine that has us returning to space (commercially), the advent of a great EV revolution and now he has had to buy and manage Twitter. His craziness will expose how much we each need to take our own pathways to truth in social media. Lies and hatred aside, the platform has immensely positive power. He will need to show that advertisers who are going to run from Twitter faster than Usain Bolt can sprint if it becomes dominated by hate, craziness and lies. No CMO wants to be associated with that. Elon it’s time to recognize the goodness of social in 2023. Start with Twitter. Between starting to write this and the end of this prediction Musk asked the twitter verse if he should remain as the CEO. It’s a scary idea that the nature of a company’s management gets decided (in theory) by a vote from non-owners. Think what this could mean for the idea of corporate governance in 2023. Scary or exciting?
PARIS, FRANCE – APRIL 26: In this photo illustration, the Elon Musk’s Twitter account is displayed … [+]
In 2023 Elon Musk will look like an idiot and genius all on one day. In fact, it started at the end of 2022 with his poll on if he should remain the CEO of Twitter. It’s the debate about society that we should have had for years but didn’t, it only took someone bold enough to poke the sleeping bear to help us realize it.
PREDICTION 03
Back to office plans are sidetracked with the realization of a larger economic and environmental ecosystem at play.
For two and half years most of us worked from home. It has changed how we think about the office, the idea of working in collaborative spaces and even work. BTO (back to the office) is still a thorny subject, but it has triggered whole innovative ideas like closing the office for periods of time to save energy costs. Just look at PWC in the UK as they close the office for two weeks in December. Covid 19 did in fact open this whole new debate in old thinking areas that would never have occurred before. Think about this. Friday is one of the least offices attended days for companies. Imagine that by the end of 2023 companies close the office on Friday and save energy till Monday. That could cut three days of energy bills including the weekend. We have also seen extensive experiments with the idea of four-day work weeks in Britain. Guess what, there was no loss in productivity.
In 2023 the debate about back to office radically shifts with new logic (energy), new ideas like at home Friday’s and a four-day week ide. Get ready for a revolution in how we think about work. Think about work very differently in 2023, not just in or out of the office. Covid has rocked the very traditions of the daily work commute in ways we still have not fully computed. It’s now a moving object so companies need to move to where is likely to be and be prepared to adapt and invest heavily to learn.
PREDECTION 04
2023 is the year of cloud indigestion, and it hurts.
Can a cloud give you indigestion? Obviously not, but the costs of cloud infrastructure become alarmingly high unless companies are doing things differently. It’s a very expensive lift and replace for hardware and tradition unless you are doing things radically differently. McKinsey believes there is a $1 TR upside to get this right. That’s 5% of the whole US economy. In 2023 there are enough companies that have indigestion with these costs that they have to really understand why they are moving so much the cloud. Transformation driven by Cloud adoption and not just migrating workloads is going be the right discussion for the C- Suite in 2023. Hardware still wins if all you want is price performance.
Stuck inside cloud infrastructure
Clouds can truly transform your business if you make it happen in the right way in 2023. 2023 marks the end of the shift and lift model for cloud success. Clouds need to add way more to continue to grow in importance.
We all massively accelerated the migration to clouds during the Covid times. Zoom is the best example but think about how much of your IT infrastructure went there too. Covid pushed so much so fast into the cloud that we need to now focus on how the cloud can make work or life better. That is the debate for 2023 and winners here (cloud native working) will crush it in 2023.
PREDICTION 05
Profiteering is here to stay until we the people stop it.
Yes, shipping container costs are way down from $20,000 to $10,000, half the cost, so is the cost of lumber by over two thirds. Have you seen a reduction in your weekly shopping chart? The answer to that is an absolute no. With inflation at seven-point seven percent something else is really driving this. Gas prices are on a typical, bumpy trend line. Labor costs are up 15% (or a net of 7.5% with inflation). We know average car costs for new vehicles is up some 10% or more for obvious supply chain issues. The feeling here is that there is profit taking from companies and industries here that is sustaining inflationary pressures for us all. At some point in 2023 as inflation slows down it will be interesting to see who starts to use price discounts to drive market share. Consumers will see these patterns and start shopping around more, so watch out for pricing wars in late 2023. We are already seeing a slowing down of measured inflation rates in mid-December. When will your weekly food bill shrink too?
In 2023 you will experience a lot of moments where you ask, “why is this still so expensive?” Profiteering or the fear of it will shift brand preferences too, so do not take advantage of a pricing power position for too long. Covid made us sensitive to availability (now and everything being shipped right now). tr might have also made us more comfortable with price volatility.
PREDICTION 06
Preventative self-health overtakes the monolithic care system thanks to smart-tech. It starts on your wrist.
If you wear an Apple Watch, then you are one of 100M who had them by 2020 and you can add 30M just in 2021. Telling the time is a lot cheaper than an Apple Watch, it’s the act of managing one’s life through the watch that is vital. There are far more than just Apple watches out there. Just look at a friend, a colleague’s wrist and count how many times you see a digital measuring device on it. I wrote about this in 2017s The Digital Helix. Your personal Covid-19 vaccination data, now sit on your wrist, and now how you get to measure your body’s key metrics for female cycle tracking, sleep and much more. In 2023 the wrist becomes your number one way we pre-emptively manage our healthcare. It’s a vital moment for us where we live, measure, adjust and learn and it all sits on our wrist as the norm.
Smart Watch Showing Heartbeat Monitor On Woman’s Hand
In 2023 it’s more than likely your doctor looks at the data on your wrist more than your medical records if something goes wrong. Remote medicine as the norm, because of Covid will infuse levels of remote monitoring and interactions with the medical profession we have never seen before. It will start with the device on your wrist.
PREDICTION 07
In 2023 EV is more real for consumers than the Government.
It’s often argued that government legislation lags the market, just look at Microsoft and the DOJ investigations of the 1990’s or the current tensions with personal data or social media platforms. Well for the automotive industry and the government mandate of 2035 and zero internal combustion units that is the latest example. Research with Cambia Information Group I wrote about with a cool EV adoption infographic. US consumers are way, way ahead of the US Governments. In fact, by 2025 over half of US consumers will consider an EV for their next car. In 2023 the US government needs to massively accelerate the infrastructure to make the 2035 mandate be delivered ten years ahead of schedule. Far more recharging stations will come online. Far more education about why EV is the best solution, etc. Get ready for EV first in every car ad for the Superbowl, and hopefully government programs to match. This should not be going this slowly so write to your Senators.
WASHINGTON – DECEMBER 04: Richard Wagoner Jr., Chairman and CEO of General Motors (L) arrives in a … [+]
2023 is the year the government in the US (at least) realizes it aimed far too low in the EV transition vision. It’s a shame too. Covid may have cut back on all our driving tendencies, but it may have also given us pause to think about what the future of driving should be, versus just continuing the past. Covid maybe the best thing that ever happened to the future of the automotive industry.
PREDICTION 08
The European Union’s collective economies are in in serious difficulty, and we have to wonder if the dream is wounded more than we thought. (Ukraine, the UK)
Size is not necessarily enough to protect against the battering of an economic storm. The EU is larger in populace than the US, but no economist is predicting it will recover as fast as the US from the economic challenges we are facing right now. Now ask economists if the UK is going to do better than the EU and the singular answer from any economist is no. Something is deeply wrong in the EU, and something is horribly wrong in the UK right now. It does not take a professional economist to see that. Minimal growth rates, deep inflationary challenges, the constant threat of labor strikes, radical governments, and disastrous currency exchange rates’ (good if you are American). The EU promised to be a single market where labor, capital and products moved as smoothly as they moved in the US, with just 75 million more people, steeped in incredibly rich cultural history and innovation. It is not delivering well against this promise because it is exceedingly difficult to create friction free with different languages, cultural principles, and business histories.
In 2023 the European Union is gravely wounded economically not just by the war in Ukraine but by a continuing inability to use its scale to drive market dominance. The UK becomes a damaged economy because it is small, and isolated from other markets. Friction free and size matter. In the UK it delayed the magnitude of negative economic consequences from Brexit. It will hit the UK extremely hard in 2023.
PREDICTION 09
Diversity and inclusion can get your company out of an economic recession if properly implemented.
It used to a very touchy subject, because the lack of it represented at best sub conscious bias in action, or at worst a blatant dis regard for the inherent economic power from diversity and inclusion. However, 2023 is, or has to be a big year for momentum for this it’s the norm all the way through the organization. Company Boards are horribly un-diverse and extremely poor at inclusivity. I interviewed a leading advocate for the new board model (Colette LaForce) in Forbes. I would listen to it if you were serious about really living this diversity need. We live in an incredibly diverse world, just look around you. Your workforce, your ideas and your business model should look the same, or better. Think of a simple piece of math’s from McKinsey.
“Our 2019 analysis finds that companies in the top quartile of gender diversity on executive teams were 25 percent more likely to experience above-average profitability than peer companies in the fourth quartile. This is up from 21 percent in 2017 and 15 percent in 2014.”
Diverse people,
In a period of slow economic growth and profit pressures, D&I may be your number one strategic weapon if you take it seriously at all levels, board, leadership, departmental. Not just in people but with ideas, insights and perspectives. In a software-centric world this will matter more than ever before as we are all equal as opportunities.
2023 will be the year D&I winners are far more common than uncommon. Look for their stories in 2023 should be easier as we hire remotely. How you look, who you are, should not be a factor. Covid has widened our eyes to what we should be doing when we hire.
PREDICTION 10
The next phase of AI companies is with art and not Go. Generative AI is the tipping point in 2023.
The promise of AI was around before Asimov wrote about it. It inherently has been seen as a replacement for human thinking and complex calculations, simulations and actions, like playing chess or the game of Go. It’s here, but it has taken far longer than anybody thought, and that’s OK. In survey’s I have run in LinkedIn there is clear acknowledgment that the age of AI is on us as an everyday norm unless than three years (48%). However, we may have all missed the key here. Visual AI is going to clearly beat purely numerical AI.
Imagine artwork created by AI programs. Go and have a look. There have been auctions for this art work already at Christies ($60,000K). Visual AI is incredibly complex, just look at the auto industry and the use of sensors in cars. Generative AI will take us from an interesting idea (not well understood) to an inspirational one where we get to see the creative power of AI in front of your eyes.
2023 will be the year where generative AI makes AI real for us all, we can touch it, see it, even watch it get created. Covid lockdowns may well have encouraged us to see the potential for AI in a more human and expressive way. Would this regenerative epoch for AI have happened without it?
PREDICTION 11
Tesla’s products slip, like IBM before, they begin to suffer due to the slew of EV offerings from competitors and the “we can do it better startups.”
Elon is not the center of these 2023 predictions, but he comes up again here. I am a Tesla owner, but I have wanderlust for the slew of new EV’s from companies like Riviana, Ford and its E Mustang, the Porsche Taycan and on and on. The Tesla is still the largest selling EV with 60%+ Six brands make up the next 15%. The game is now on. Just like the PC business where IBM had 60% share, the advent of Compaq, Dell, etc., quickly shifted market share dominance within three years. By the end of 2023 I believe you will no longer just consider Tesla but will also consider two to three other EV centric models. This is going to put pressures on Tesla to get passed the “early adopter,” model to protect its share dominance. History has shown that it will get a lot tougher for the leader to sustain share and volume in the next generation of cars.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 10: A Rivian electric truck is displayed
In 2023 I predict Tesla will run competitive ads against other EV cars and vendors for the first time. I firmly believe the challenges from Covid with driving to the office, the increase software and hardware density of vehicles (stressing the supply side too) have accelerated major automotive companies’ commitment to this new generational idea. This absolutely accelerated the competitive landscape against Tesla.
PREDICTION 12
The metaverse continues to be the well-known mistress no one wants to speak about.
Does anybody like Mark Zuckerberg? The positive answer to that instant poll will be exceptionally low. Re naming Facebook to Meta looks like a packaging exercise to protect the company from the bad reputation Zuckerberg has, but it is more than that. Meta is the idea of two universes colliding and interacting. It may have first been born with Second Life in 2003 (like Facebook itself was not an original idea from Zuckerberg). It has not come very far in nearly twenty years, so why is 2023 going to be any different? Meta’s investments in the Metaverse have been stunning, in the billions a year. The lack of take-off has been the lack of killer applications that bring the physical and virtual worlds together in practical and or entertaining value add. We have tried gaming with mixed results. In 2023 we will get to see business-based applications in digital twins because we are mostly out of the office and need to simulate how technology and environments will work. Thank you Covid for this. As we move to more intelligent machines then we need to see how they will work (not humans) in this new world. These are the killer applications that we will all, either experience the results of (simulated building experiences, machines, cars, etc.) or be part of them.
In 2023 we will all get to see small points of light about why the Meta verse is a reality. It just is not s prime time reality yet. Covid got us hyper addicted to social media. Meta may have falsely assumed that the level of social media addiction from Covid was a rapid on ramp to the Metaverse.
PREDICTION 13
We somehow thank Kanye West for teaching us that celebrity is as dangerous as crypto currencies.
He is not well and has been prescribed medication to help. But our constant attention to his overreaching self-promotion tells us more about the weird balance of celebrity and branding. Marketers are going to walk away, more and more from these outliers as the downsides are faster and worse than the long tail of goodness. Athletes and celebrities understand this too and the idea that you can separate your personal perspectives from your commercial position becomes somewhat untenable. Ask JK Rowling too. In a world with ever decreasing attention spans and a fascination with the shock power of celebrity we recognize that certain types of celebrity and celebrity endorsements are not appropriate. In 2023 this is going to be amplified by an odd tension between our inherent desire to watch and even commentate on celebrity (people and brands) and an increasingly surgical response when that quest for fame crashes and burns. Just ask Adidas and Kayne.
Kanye West
2023 is hopefully the year marketers, CMOs think far harder about how they use and feed celebrity brands and what it could cost them if it goes wrong, amazingly fast. We live in a celebrity obsessed world whereas it used to be 15 minutes of fame for the elite, it now is 15 seconds of fame for anyone willing to perform the unthinkable.
PREDICTION 14
Industrial Technology overtakes consumer technology as the gamechanger in the global economy.
PwC estimated that seventy percent of the GDP growth between 2020 and 2030 will come from the machine economy (AI, the edge, intelligent machines learning and adjusting). By 2025, eighty five percent of people working in manufacturing will have a co-bot as their partner as they work. That means that if your company is going to grow its revenue in the next ten years it had better have an intelligent technology focus. Nothing will supersede this as a growth engine. Think about the EV automotive, autonomous delivery, 5G networks, micro-robotic assisted surgeries, automated restaurant cooks, wind turbine powered energy grids, Semi-autonomous drones, one driver truck trains going up and down the M4 in the UK, even self-healing building HVAC systems and killer robots (sort of joking on that one). The list is endless because we increasingly see the possibilities for machines to enhance and change the very nature of work and products or services through the application of real time data.
In 2023 if you have not instituted an intelligent technology review of the possibilities then you are ignoring the engine that will drive 70% of global GDP by 2030. That’s a projected $7 TR in US by 2030. Autonomous systems that do more work without humans being at risk (infection) or being needed (labor shortages).
PREDICTION 15
Boomers are done, OK.
Boomers are done. Yes, we are still alive, but we are now mostly retired. We reached the tipping point of dominance in 2020 and it’s been a rapid downward slide since. Generation X, Millennials and Generation Y are the present and the future of many of the most important decisions that are made for society, how we work, think about the planet, our politics, food, financial models, sports, entertainment, etc.
In 2023 smart politicians, marketers and charities head to the youngest possible social groups to drive and mold them for the next ten years. Boomers have done their job here with mixed reviews, obviously. It’s time to gracefully retire in 2023 and let the younger generations take over. They are digital first, diversity is the norm. A large and mostly young workforce has experienced a radically different working reality with as the world changed around them. Their expectations of how buildings will need to be bought, what great service looks like and how they live an almost fluid lifestyle (renting or subscriptions) is going to change the world round us. Covid was a vibrant accelerant to this.
PREDICTION 16
Cyber security becomes the level one priority for the C suite it deserves.
Cyber security is hardly a new concern. This year is going to be very different, because we are in the middle of a perfect storm. An increasing focus on data or digital business models where data and protecting it in motion is essential for survival let alone success. From hospital records to autonomous vehicles and devices on the edge. The ability to protect that data while it is working is going to be essential. We live in an increasingly high threat environment for attacks on key infrastructure like power systems. Just look at the recent cases in the northwest of the United States. These are no longer anomalies. Finally, the global landscape is probably scarier than it has been for a long time, from Ukraine to North Korea. The defense of the United States is increasingly seeing the intertwining of traditional investments in equipment and cyber defense.
Cyber Defense
In 2023 every CEO will constantly ask and demand answers about their threat surfaces (physical, digital) not just on a planned basis but every time a story is reported. Be prepared to have this as a key determinant of the success of a cloud strategy, your digital transformation strategy and even how you might recruit and retain high performing team members. Covid made us live our lives online. Our sensitivity to threats in that virtual world grew rapidly. Our online lives are more vulnerable than ever before. So the biggest question to ask here is: What’s your data worth?
PREDICTION 17
Women grow and change the music industry from the stage to the studio, and from the tour bus to the ticket service.
Ask anybody of any age or social background what their favorite Taylor Swift song is. I challenge you to find somebody who does not have one. That is the ultimate sign of influence and zeitgeist. However female artists barely make up one in four artists. Females are less than three percent of producers and are a mere one in eight of the songwriters. This is inherently illogical (like the film industry), and it needs to change. So why is 2023 going to be different because of Taylor Swift? She is re defining how the industry makes money (massively over booked tours, instant dominance of the downloads, only bettered by the Beatles in terms of chart dominance in one go), an incredible level of production in a short period, even during Covid.
In 2023 we recognize that to correctly balance the industry female artists become multi layered experts (collaboration, rerecording, road tours, new albums). The music industry sees change in lightning flashes like Swift, Beyonce, Rihanna, bank in 1995 the “Lilith Fair” tour did much of the same as well.
Btw: My favorite Swift song is Anti Hero.
American singer-songwriter Taylor Swift performs on stage Mercedes-Benz Arena (Photo by Zhang … [+]
2023 is the year this becomes more than an abstract conversation. As we worked from home it enhanced our appreciation (across all age groups) for artists like Taylor Swift and changed our tune when it came to entertainment media. It revitalized vinyl, nearly killed off Hollywood, allowed the Kardashians to move to the top of reality TV and helped us realize Richard Serra was right about how we are the product of television not the other way around.
PREDICTION 18
In Sports: ESPN the OCHO content finally becomes mainstream binging every possible exotic sport, Pickleball anybody?
Pickleball is one of the exotic games we are seeing more of. As we all exit the effects of a pandemic with Covid and the creative ideas we all had to put into place to exercise (table tennis, video classes, walking) some of these activities will continue and grow. That is the essence of Pickleball (low costs, easy to do, small groups of people) and an increased focus on active participation. Listen to the US champions talking about it here. As we shift away from pre- Covid ideas of normal we would be foolish to assume that how we participate in sport will not change too. Listen to this podcast with the CEO of one of the leading virtual exercise companies in the world.
In 2023 we see what once exotic sports were turn into very accepted exercise ideas. Covid was a moment to exercise more (home based work). While Peloton clearly misread longer run changes Covid may well have opened up whole new exercise and sports avenues that would not have occurred with such magnitude beforehand.
PREDICTION 19
In a repeat of the 1853 war in Crimea weather becomes a battleground tactic of war and forces the hand of the West.
The Ukrainian president’s visit to the US at Christmas time has been compared to Winston Churchill’s on December 22nd 1941. Every war and conflict is incredibly painful to watch and is full of symbolism too. The senseless loss of life and destruction of social infrastructure should be a lesson to not repeat them. What started in early 2022 and has stretched through a mild summer and autumn is about to be redefined by the climate of winter. Yet we do. In the mid 19th century, the British and the then Russian Empire were embedded in a terrible, mud laden trench warfare in the winter. Everything (literally) froze. As we enter the new year the same fear sits at the back of our minds. While technology is currently defining the rebalancing acts in the war, drones in particular, the brutal winter conditions are also going to re shape the nature of the conflict with attacks on mission critical energy infrastructure being one of them and the widespread depravation of power and heat for large portions of the Ukrainian population.
WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 21: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (L) and Speaker of the House Nancy … [+]
In 2023 The west will need to decide how it wants to protect democracy in Ukraine because the winter could stretch deep into April and May of 2023. If the west does not step up to help Ukraine the constant rocket attacks could cripple the country. There is immense intellectual capital in Ukraine that needs to protection and nurturing. Listen to my podcast about the rebuilding of Ukraine here.
PREDICTION 20
Welcome to the new volatile labor markets – globally each of us needs a very astute sports agent.
Scott Boras is a hated man by sports franchise CEO’s and owners in the USA. There are similar agents in soccer in Europe, like Jorge Mendes. They have something in common. Even if we fight over the idea that one sport is called football or soccer. They make incredibly high sums of money for their athletes because they know when, where and how to best leverage the market opportunity. (As this was being written Mendes secured a new $75 Million per year deal for Christiano Ronaldo, because he knew the market.) Now imagine if each of us had a Scot Boras or a Jose Mendes? It’s an exciting idea (for lots of reasons,) but it also represents the new labor markets idea that employees and job seekers have immensely more power than they have ever before if they can catch the right opportunity in the right way for the best possible personal returns. Covid, remote working, the increasing pressure for labor needs that exceed our ability to automate tasks have all converged together to create a whole new workforce empowerment.
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 01: Los Angeles Lakers Lebron James and his agent Rich Paul look on … [+]
In 2023 the imperative for culture, care, and a connected work experience to retain, delight and entice human capital becomes a norm, not an exception. Like athletes talented and in demand people will be far more able to see, hear and experience (LinkedIn) their potential value than ever before. The shackles of not being able to test the market will have fallen away because of the tipping points of a post Covid world.
PREDICTION 21
You become what you eat for real.
Type II diabetes is going to be a top three killer in the world very shortly. It is in the same leagues as cancer and heart disease. It is not just the disease of the western world. More citizens in China and India will have it than the total population of the United States and then multiply it by one and a half. It is a painful, omnipresent and well understood disease, yet it’s incidence and distribution and frankly the solution for it lies squarely in each of our hands. Covid amplified dietary concerns in the US. Higher food costs will make that situation worse. The period may well have accelerated a dietary crisis but increasing wealth across the globe has radically shifted diet towards foods that feed type II diabetes (meat, dairy, sugars). In the west 20%+ of those over the age of 70 years have type II. As we get older this is going to be a hidden killer. In 2023 we will finally recognize that we need to change what we put in our bodies or there is a high chance it will reduce our lifespan. Expect to see a whole new slew of medical ads on TV, revised insurance rates for life insurance and the medical industry (your doctor) check for this. $15.6 billion was spent in 2002 just on diabetes meter/measurement systems. There is a CAGR of over 8% a year too. This a growth industry for all the wrong reasons.
PREDICTION 22
China sits tight and quiet, as the world begins to spurn them both economically and culturally.
We just do not know how economic trade relationships will work with China in 2023. For some twenty-five plus years China’s pathway to an economic duopoly with the US was never in doubt. The annual reported growth rates were astounding and constantly sent a sense of un-stoppable momentum for China. Covid may well have put a brake on that for China and caused the world to reflect on its collective need to manage their own supply chains, manufacturing capacities and dependencies, especially with our increased focus on semi-conductors as the intelligent brains of so much of what we consume. Incredible amounts of innovation are occurring in the world’s largest automotive economy in China but it could be prevented from spreading across the globe unless we can find a fluid, two way exchange of trade.
China’s President Xi Jinping (C) appears between curtains after he was elected for a second term … [+]
2023 is a pivotal year for China, its economy, and the nuanced relationships with economies around the world are going to come under constant monitoring at all levels. The EU and other geographies will feel far more empowered to say, “we can do it here too, or somewhere else.” India may benefit the most from this shift as will the mid-west of the US you can learn more about this from my conversation with JP Nauseef. Trade needs to become two way, because we are all collectively better for it that way, a mutual win-win.
PREDICTION 23
The Dallas Cowboys finally win the Super Bowl, again, finally!
They hit hard, move fast and fly around. They look a lot like Dan Quinn’s other defenses starting in Seattle. In an era where offense is the essence of the NFL a great defense that is hyper aggressive is a pleasure to watch. I chose this as the last one because being slightly counter to a general trend, in this case the league’s offensive focus really should pay its rewards.
LANDOVER, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 12: Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys forces Taylor Heinicke #4 … [+]
The same will be true for all of us in 2023. Slightly counter to trends is what will make for success in a potentially volatile 2023. Doing nothing or trying to absorb it and hope you make it in 2023 will not make for a successful year.
In closing:
Quantumrm published 422 predictions for 2023. It made me feel in-adequate in these twenty-three. It does, however, illustrate the enormous possibilities next year has. In part caused by a major shift in the economic patterns around us (de globalization, generational shifts). In 2023 everything gets thrown into the air from home to work to travel and way beyond. The possibilities are endless because of all these forces and how they might start to work together. The idea of permanently asking: what if ? Will be the evolving normal of 2023.
Lets’ see what if’s become the what were ideas of 2023 take us.
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